Mississippi High School Football

Welcome to

Mississippi High School Football

What we do

We work out every way each Mississippi high school football region race can still finish, then rank each finish with the MHSAA’s own tiebreaker rules. That gives every team’s odds of making the playoffs and of landing each seed, and the exact results it needs to get there. Every region, every class, updated every morning.

How it works

With a handful of region games left, we play out every possible combination of results; earlier in the season we simulate the rest of the schedule 50,000 times. Projected odds weigh each game by the two teams’ Elo ratings and home field; Toss-up odds treat every game as a coin flip. Scores come from AHSFHS.

More on how the odds work

Class standings

Standings for each region in each class.

  • Each team’s region record
  • Which teams have clinched playoff spots or specific seeds
  • Each team’s chance of making the playoffs
  • Each team’s chance of winning the region

Here’s Class 7A as it stands right now, starting with Region 3:

Open Class 7A

Region breakdown

Standings

Detailed standings for a given region.

  • A headline summing up the race
  • Each team’s region and overall records
  • Which teams have clinched playoff spots or specific seeds
  • Each team’s chance of making the playoffs
  • Each team’s chance of finishing at each seed
  • An expanded view of each team: its completed and remaining games and its playoff path odds

Here’s Region 3-7A, the most unsettled race in the state right now:

Open Region 3-7A

Results that settle a spot

Before full scenarios are ready, the results that clinch a seed or a playoff spot, or knock a team out, no matter what else happens.

Region 3-7A still has 9 region games left, too many for full scenarios, but these results settle a spot no matter what else happens:

Open Region 3-7A

Region title scenarios

Scenarios for how each eligible team can still win the region.

Here’s what has to happen for the two likeliest champions of Region 5-1A:

Open Region 5-1A

Playoff spot scenarios

Scenarios for how each team on the bubble can still make or miss the playoffs.

Here’s what decides the last playoff spots in Region 5-1A:

Open Region 5-1A

Team seeding scenarios

Scenarios for how each eligible team can finish as a given seed.

And what puts teams in Region 5-1A at a particular seed:

Open Region 5-1A

Unique region scenarios

Each unique seeding finish possible in a given region.

Region 5-1A can still finish 65 ways. Here are the first two:

Open Region 5-1A

Bracket page

Each class’s playoff bracket, filled in with who is likely to land in each spot. Pick a game to see every team that could play there, how likely each matchup is, and who would host.

And here’s the Class 7A bracket, with one game opened up the way it looks after you tap it:

Open the 7A bracket